| Doug Usher, Ph.D. is a partner at Forbes Tate. Doug has spent the last two decades building insights that have helped change the strategic trajectory of major corporations, industry associations, and political campaigns. Combining deep expertise in opinion research, data analysis, and analytics with years of experience navigating the intersection between business goals and the political, policy, and regulatory spheres. Doug has helped build winning strategies and campaigns for clients across a broad range of industries. |
Question –
How’d the pollsters do in the election?
On the whole they had a better night than they’ve had over the last few election cycles. In 2016 and 2020, public pollsters underestimated Trump support by a sizable margin. This time? They were within just a point or two of the final result. Perhaps more important, reporting on the polls provided a realistic perspective on the election outcome – it was a coin toss, and Trump ended up ahead by a couple of points. That’s the best we can expect from polls.
Question –
What are some long-term trends that matter?
Polling will continue to dominate political headlines, especially when other types of reporting (particularly “vibe” reporting) can swing so wildly from side to side. The long-term challenge that is most vexing to pollsters is that presidential elections are close every time. We don’t have presidential blowouts. This time, Trump won by about the same margin Biden won last time, which followed a close election in 2016. When the election is close at the stretch, there’s not much for polls to tell us except… wait until election day!
Question –
What’s the biggest mistake people are making when they look at the election?
We tend to overread election results. After investing so much time and energy in following (and working in) elections, we want to get an immediate, clear narrative. Trump has remade the GOP coalition, and that’s an incredibly interesting result. But jumping to a conclusion that this new coalition could be durable and might outlast Trump is an overreach – just like when political analysts thought the 2008 Obama election would reshape American politics. We keep getting close elections, with different configurations of the electorate every time.